18 August 2020
Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Note: 1,141 U.S. adults were surveyed between Aug. 14–17, 2020 with a ±3.1% margin of error; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios
Democrats are significantly more concerned than Republicans about the safety of in-person voting and traditional door-to-door campaigning amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.
Why it matters: Joe Biden’s campaign, and Democrats nationwide, are eager to press the case that President Trump has mishandled the pandemic — but the pandemic is also causing Democratic voters to turn away from the tools and traditions that typically form the backbone of a successful campaign.
The big picture: Democrats are consistently more worried about the coronavirus than Republicans; they rate almost every specific activity or situation as riskier than Republicans do. And that very much includes politics, according to our latest survey.
By the numbers: 68% of Democrats said in-person, door-to-door political campaigning would carry a moderate or large risk to their health and safety. Just 46% of Republicans said the same.
- Similarly, 63% of Democrats and 32% of Republicans said in-person voting would be at least moderately risky.
Between the lines: This is a vivid illustration of a challenge Democrats have faced since the spring. The poor response to the pandemic gives them a powerful campaign message, but has also taken away many of the tactical tools they’d normally use to press that advantage.
- “Biden would not be credible if he was going out and doing MAGA-type rallies. His base would think he was being foolish,” said Cliff Young, president of Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs. ”Trump can get away with that because his base doesn’t see the same sort of risk out there.”
Yes, but: It’s not an insurmountable challenge, Young notes. Even without rallies or a typical convention or the usual crowds and glad-handing of an election year, Biden still consistently polls several points ahead of Trump.
- “They do have to message it correctly and respect their base’s relative level of fear by talking to people about how you campaign safely, how do you vote safely,” Young said.
What we’re watching: This concern about a campaign volunteer knocking on the door is consistent with another clear finding in the Axios/Ipsos survey: Regardless of partisanship, Americans see strangers as a much greater coronavirus threat than people they know.
- 56% of all respondents said coming into a close contact with an essential worker would be a moderate or large risk to their health, and 59% said it’d be risky to come into contact with someone who travels for work.
- By comparison, just 36% said it’d be at least moderately risky to see a family member they don’t live with, and just 38% said it would be risky to come in close contact with someone they saw regularly before the pandemic began.
Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted August 14-17 by Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,141 general population adults age 18 or older.
- The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.