14 January 2021
With long-term U.S. interest rates creeping higher and the stock market rally looking increasingly bubblicious, market participants will have a keen eye on remarks by Fed chair Jerome Powell today at Princeton University.
Why it matters: The uncertainty created by the coronavirus pandemic, volatility in financial markets and diverging opinions about the future of monetary policy from Fed policymakers have investors hungry for guidance.
What's happening: Minutes from the Fed's latest policy-setting meeting and comments from various members of the FOMC in recent days have suggested the central bank could begin reducing its massive quantitative easing program — which has provided significant confidence to stock and bond investors — by the end of the year.
- While comments from other members of the committee have suggested the central bank will be buying bonds for much longer.
What they're saying: "I could see, potentially, that occurring at the very end of 2021 or early 2022," Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker said of reducing the Fed's bond buys in a speech last week.
- Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic told reporters on Monday he was “open to” tapering bond buys later this year.
- "I would hope it might be this year,” Dallas Fed chief Robert Kaplan said Monday.
On the other side: In an effort to tamp down on all the tapering talk, two of the Fed's heavy hitters, seen as closest to Powell, made clear we would be here for a while.
- "We are not going to lift off until we get inflation at 2% for a year. ... We are trying to tie our hands," Fed vice chair Richard Clarida said Wednesday.
- The U.S. economy remains “far away” from the Fed’s goals and as a result, the bond-buying program will likely continue for “quite some time,” Fed governor Lael Brainard said on Wednesday.
By the numbers: The Fed is currently buying $120 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities every month in part to keep yields on U.S. government debt low.
- Even so, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen by nearly 25 basis points since the start of the year, touching a high of 1.18% earlier this week as investors brace for a pickup in inflation.
- Ten-year breakeven inflation rates rose as high as 2.11% last week and held steady at 2.06% on Thursday.
Watch this space: The Fed's latest report on business conditions around the country found that a third of the U.S. central bank’s 12 districts reported flat or declining activity in November and December while the majority of districts said activity increased only modestly.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.